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Suze Orman Money Matters

Suze Orman, Money Matters

Don't Let Your Money Yield to the Fed Rate Cuts

by Suze Orman

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Posted on Monday, May 5, 2008, 12:00AM

You don't need a Ph.D. in mathematics to understand that the numbers aren't working in your favor these days. The Fed's aggressive easing of the federal funds rate has made a mess of your cash and fixed-income strategies.

The most aggressive bank savings deals pay out little more than 2.5 percent to 3 percent right now. Given that the official inflation rate is above 4 percent, you're pretty much guaranteed a negative real rate of return. And you're probably feeling a lot more than a 1-percentage-point shortfall; the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers sure don't seem to reflect the much-higher price hikes for basic food and fuel.

Do the Right Thing

That makes it extra hard to do what's right. Amid the economic slowdown, your emergency savings account becomes an important survival tool to protect against the possibility of being laid off or having your hours reduced. Yet it's hard to concede that the money you set aside in a cash account isn't protecting you against inflation, so you do what seems logical: you look for higher-yielding alternatives.

I'm hearing from more and more of you that you're shifting from CDs into 10-year Treasuries, where the yield is about double what your bank might be paying out. Please be careful when extending into longer maturities -- you're exposing yourself to locking in a low rate of return. Given the inflation rate, that's a bad place to be once the tide turns and the Fed starts to tighten.

Will that happen tomorrow? No. But it sure looks like it'll happen sooner rather than later, if you believe that the anemic dollar and rising inflation will need to be addressed. It's pretty obvious that there isn't much more room for further Fed easing; maybe another .50 basis points, but that should be that.

So now is the time to cautiously navigate the world of fixed income and yield to the desire to extend into longer maturities. Here are four key things to remember when you do:

• Keep your savings safe.

The point of your emergency cash fund is to protect you. Ideally, you don't lose out to inflation in the process, but I think the need for safety outweighs the desire to earn more in riskier investments.

The bottom line is that your eight-month emergency cash fund belongs in, well, cash. Nothing more. You don't put this money at principal risk.

That said, you want to make sure you're earning the highest possible "safe" return, so that means shopping for the best bank deal. The online banks EmigrantDirect and ING Direct continue to offer competitive deals. You might also check out iGObanking.com; it recently offered a 3.28 percent payout on its savings account.

• Don't get into a fixed-income fix.

I've always been a big believer in the laddering strategy for the fixed-income portion of your portfolio. Currently, I would own a mix of short- and medium-term maturity bonds to best address the risk/reward challenge. You get a higher yield than you would with a 100 percent short-term portfolio with lower risk than a 100 percent long-term portfolio.

But what I'm hearing from many people right now is that they're shifting out of the short-term positions and adding to their long-term holdings. Again, I think that's playing with fire. I'm not suggesting that the Fed's going to start tightening in the next month or two, but you have to believe that with continued inflation pressure tightening is on the horizon, and that's not going to bode well for those purchasing long-term bonds right now.

So stick with a laddered approach. Also, if inflation is a concern for you, and I think it should be, you should consider changing the type of bonds you own. Instead of straight Treasuries consider Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The interest rate is fixed on TIPS, but your principal is adjusted every six months in line with changes in the CPI. If inflation rises, so does your principal. That means you pocket a higher interest payout as you earn interest on your higher principal. You can buy TIPS in increments of $1,000 from TreasuryDirect.

• Check out munis.

While TIPS offer a decent inflation hedge, the fact is that anxiety over the credit crisis fallout has boosted demand (bond prices) so much that TIPS yields have been pushed lower. They're still attractive, just not as good-looking as a few months ago.

Interestingly, the same credit-crunch fears have created an investing opportunity in tax-exempt bonds. Yields remain high in part due to the flight to Treasuries and lingering concerns about the bond insurance market. If you stick with highly rated bonds, the risk remains quite low and the yield can't be beat.

The average yield for five-year AAA muni bonds was recently 3.1 percent. That's more than the 2.9 percent payout on a regular 5-year Treasury. And let's remember that Treasury income is taxed at the federal level, while munis, of course, are tax-free. So for someone in the 28 percent federal tax bracket, the 3.1 percent muni yield is the equivalent of a taxable 4.3 percent. If you're also subject to state and local income tax, munis look even better.

• Lock in high yield return elsewhere in balance sheet.

Many of you are so focused on how to wring out an extra half-percentage point on your cash and fixed income that you're overlooking the potential for big risk-free returns lurking on the debit side of your financial statement.

Once you build a sufficient cash stash, don't unnecessarily hoard more dollars in it. As adamant as I am about the need for an emergency cash fund, in this low-rate environment it makes sense to only keep the minimum in cash. Once you have your eight-month to one-year cushion, use your extra dollars to pay off any higher-rate debt.

Credit card debt is a no-brainer. In fact, if you're dealing with high-rate card debt of 18 percent to 20 percent or more, I would even suggest you dip into your emergency cash position (I know I'm making an assumption you have one) to get the balance paid off. When you have high-rate card debt, the "security" of a large emergency cash fund is a bit illusory; you won't have complete security until you pare down that costly debt.

Your car loan is more debt to tackle. And for those of you who intend to stay put in your home, I recommend using any extra cash to speed up your principal payments. Taking money out of a 2 percent to 3 percent taxable cash account to pay off a 6 percent mortgage can make a lot of sense. The end result is that you'll own your home outright a lot faster -- and that's just the sort of security that makes sense in any market environment, but especially this one

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76 Comments

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  • Logical - Wednesday, May 14, 2008, 4:46PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Good article. It is important for people to take deep breath before moving emergency cash to get better returns. When people make decisions based on fear, they end up geting into situations where they don't understand the risks and end up following the lemmings off the cliff time after time. No one wants a sub par return on their money, but chasing the higher returns usually hurts more people than it helps. Get in the habit of studying the past and understanding the cycles, then make your decisons based on what comes next in the cycle instead of what is currently happening. Most people jumped into the market at its high point because they saw others getting great returns and they arrived just in time to take the losses, then they saw people making a killing in Real Estate so they moved into that just in time to get slaughtered. Now they are taking what they have left and buying gold, silver and other commodities while they are at record HIGHS. The key is to buy low and sell high not to buy high and hope it goes higher. The real problem with most people is they are present thinking, not forward thinking. Then you have the "buy and hold" crowd who preach to the masses to hold on through the bloodbath because the market will come back and you will be better off. Great advice for your advisor who keeps getting paid for managing your money into oblivion. Why take the loss. Look forward. Buy things when they are low and sell when they are high then take your profits and buy something else that is low. The market, although lower, has a long way to go as does Real Estate before this current debacle is over. Bide your time and you will be grateful you did. Gold, silver, oil and other commodities could go higher but could fall sharply and eventually will. So what do I recommend? I recommend that you quit following the so called gurus and get your own financial education. Study the economic cycles in the past and what went up and down at each stage. Understand what current government policies have done in the past when idiots have tried to fix the system and end up making the problems much worse. Learn to rely on your instincts that you develop through learning and doing. Trust me. You will profit much more by learning to chart your own course than by following the lemmings off cliff after cliff.

  • isolator70 - Monday, May 12, 2008, 12:07AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Totally agree on the MSA junk being offered. I have a buddy who signed on to that because of the equity accellerator program where you send your paycheck in and use it like a checking account. Only problem is, life gets in the way and, as has been pointed out, you can save the same on a regular mortgage if you can do without that money. The lure is that you are earning money on your excess money until you need it. Think about it though, if your net pay is $6,000 after your mortgage payment, taxes etc. and you use that 6k during the month, your average balance is $3,000 at any given time. Even at a 7% mortgage, which is likely because these products are sold to people with poor credit scores, your "savings" are only $210 per year. Compare that to the cost of signing up for the program and consider that you can, if you save money like they claim, do the same thing through a conventional mortgage. I have done an similar type program at no sign-up cost with the interest rate tied to prime 0 and it worked great. However, these MSA's are marketed to people as if they will pay off their mortgage quicker, which they can, but most of the people targetted are more likely to utilize their access to the equity and only increase their interest expense. Unless you have good credit already, the MSA product will come at a higher rate than you can get a fixed rate mortgage at, or it will be tied to the highly variable prime rate. I disagree with Suze on the paying off your mortgage early as well. If you are at 6% or better, and are in a tax bracket where you deduct 1/3 or so, you can do better with tax free munis or even some utility stocks without totally exposing yourself to too much risk. As far as the claim that you shouldn't waste too much time quibbling over small returns on small money, just remember "If you watch out for the pennies, the dollars will take care of themselves". Good luck, think before you invest and stay away from the snake oil that is an "MSA" unless you are certain you can make it work for you.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday, May 11, 2008, 10:52PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    The clown talking about the MSA should be banned, or be exposed what he is a mortgage broker trying to make a quick buck. Say what an MSA really is, a HELOC used to float all additional monthly income you have into paying off your house faster. Funny thing is you can pretty much achieve the same results by simply sending in additional money without shelling out $3500 in software which is effectively Quicken. Couple of other problems: 1) you lose your job heaven forbid, then all the sudden you could be stuck with a significant balance in your MSA (HELOC) at a much higher rate then your conventional mortgage. 2) You get your HELOC frozen like thousands of people around the country. Then you could be stuck with no extra money that you could have put away in more liquid assets and you have $3500 Quicken that is financed in your HELOC...oh sorry MSA at a higher rate than your conventional mortgage. Before you go preaching to the world about MSA talk about the benefits AND RISKS (something that the person trying to sell me this never did) and review other avenues of investments. I can promise you, if you took all this extra money you pump into paying off your mortgage in say 10-12 years in investments earning 7-8% you are sure to come out ahead rather than pumping it into your mortgage and then trying to play catch up after the fact. At the end of 30 years you would end up owning your house either way. At worst you would come out even in your retirement account, or @ 8% come out with a few hundred thousands extra in retirement savings…..and by the way under this scenario if you did need emergency money (and I’m not preaching taking penalized draws out of a 401K or IRA), but if you had to….you could.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday, May 11, 2008, 1:09AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    I was with Suze until she started putting liquid assets into an illiquid asset like your home. The only reason to pay down your owed principal is to get out from under PMI. Go with TIPS or Munis, if a Dem goes into the WH you will see the nation heading for Jimmy Carter's interest rates again. CD's will be above 6% with in a year and 9% in another year. All the money locked up in your residence paying down the principal won't be available to use as interest rates zoom.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, May 9, 2008, 8:16AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    I put money in RIO last year and I am up 160%. I guess I could have bought something Suzie suggests and only be up 3 percent. Wonderful advice Suzie. If you follow her advice you will be living in a cardboard box when you grow old.

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