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Mick Weinstein The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Mick Weinstein, The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Earnings Calls and a Merger Mashup

by Mick Weinstein

Fair (49 Ratings)
1.897958/5
Posted on Friday, April 11, 2008, 12:00AM

As earnings season kicked off this week, the Street wondered: Can strong reports can lift the market out of its first-quarter funk, or are we in for more downside if industry heavyweights miss their numbers?

Earnings Season Kicks Off

GE earnings disappointed this morning, raising concerns that industrial bellwethers are now being hit by the economic slowdown. Bespoke Investment Group and Kathy Lien respond.

Investment advisor Kevin Price says market participants perceive earnings estimates for the next two or three quarters as too high -- even after sell-side analysts have brought them down: "The conventional wisdom is that the conventional wisdom is too optimistic." CFA candidate Turley Muller finds that the "risk premium" of owning stocks versus bonds has dropped recently, which means that "even if investors think earnings forecasts are reasonable, they have a low degree of confidence ... that those estimates will prove accurate."

For London hedge fund trader Macro Man, the recent low equity trading volumes and bland price action indicate lack of interest, or at least conviction, in this earnings season. He's intrigued by the "seemingly inevitable sharp downgrade of U.S. earnings expectations, which would presumably lead to lower stock prices," and believes small caps in particular are looking vulnerable.

Bespoke takes a close look at the all-important Dow Industrials 30 stocks ahead of earnings, highlighting those that most consistently beat -- and miss -- analyst estimates.

On particular companies' earnings: Todd Sullivan tackles Circuit City and Wal-Mart; Shaun Miller addresses Visa and MasterCard; and Bed Bath & Beyond gets gloss from Trader Mark.

Internet Giants Jockey for Position

Microsoft's rebuffed takeover bid for Yahoo! took another interesting turn this week, as the big Internet companies all jockeyed for position ahead of the final (?) turn.

Silicon Alley Insider has had strong ongoing coverage of the developments with typical wit, while Eli Hoffmann succinctly summarizes the bold recent moves from AOL, Google, and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.

Dealbreaker weighs in on the "Murdoch, Yang, Ballmer Menage a Trois" and asks, "Doesn't it suggest a rather severe case of memory loss to think AOL might execute well on a merger?"

TechCrunch's Michael Arrington: "I can't decide if 'nose knifing' or 'scorched earth' is the best way of describing what [Yahoo is] doing, but I have to ask: If Yahoo 'wins' this epic battle with Microsoft, will there be anything left at the end to celebrate over? ... [t]he health of the Internet demands a counterbalance to Google. Yahoo-Microsoft, given the current state of things, is the only reasonable outcome."

Media expert Jeff Jarvis believes "a Yahoo-AOL latchup is Dumb and Dumber, Incorporated. Who would run the thing? What would the strategy be?" Jarvis, who's currently writing a book on Google, believes Yahoo and AOL should follow the Google example, making everything they have exportable, and building a platform for individuals and companies to share content and even start businesses.

"This is ridiculous," says Toronto-based tech writer Mathew Ingram. "The next thing we'll hear is that Yahoo is talking with my Aunt Edna's bridge club about a counter-offer." For Barrons' Eric Savitz, "All the maneuvering shows that Yahoo is a valuable property, if one that has been chronically mismanaged," and that Yahoo may have more "wiggle room" than previously thought.

Investment advisor Chad Brand finds it fascinating that Yahoo, "the old search leader," could end up outsourcing search advertising to Google, the very upstart that took over its top spot. Finally, Portfolio.com's Felix Salmon likes the idea of a joint bid for Yahoo from Microsoft and News Corp.: "The bits of Yahoo which Microsoft doesn't want ... are precisely the bits which Murdoch would love."

Quick Takes for Investors

Gold bulls are convinced the pullback is over and it's time to capitalize on the next leg up. Here are ideas from Michael Kosares, Money Morning's Martin Hutchinson, and Jason Hamlin.

Hedge fund manager Amit Chokshi is short the stock of online travel agency Priceline -- he explains why in rigorous detail. See disputing views on this stock from Stephen Sinclair and Sramana Mitra.

Searching for a building block for your portfolio? Fund manger Roger Nusbaum tracks Johnson & Johnson's strong price record and remarks, "There are companies that you can buy that will rarely be what's 'hot,' but will deliver to your ultimate goal: having enough money when you need it."

Steve Waldman believes central banks have become downright dangerous, but that the size of the U.S. Fed's balance sheet will limit the public's losses.

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17 Comments

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  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, April 30, 2008, 8:13AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Don't quit your dayjob Mick. Oh, this is it.

  • Chris G - Friday, April 11, 2008, 9:21PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    I have to agree with most of the posters here that this whole idea of posting disjointed commentary from finance blogs is not working. I'm also perplexed that one would quote from a CFA candidate (i.e. someone who doesn't even have the CFA charter yet). Heck, I should know...I'm a CFA candidate and I wouldn't even quote myself. And for the person who wants PT back, come on.......nothing is worse than PT. She was entertaining in a freak-circus-sideshow sort of way, which is not what I would call enjoyable entertainment. Remember when she said to do downward facing dogs in the bathroom stall? What the heck was that all about?!?!

  • SandyLady - Friday, April 11, 2008, 8:40PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    I'm sure Mick is a nice decent guy, but please tell him to go away.....if we wanted blogs or search we could do it ourselves, and at least from sources that are more noteworthy. Perhaps Mick needs to take a different slant in his writing, or do something else. To all of his friends who are "bashing" us 1-star posters: I am an active member of these commentators and there are quite a few financial pros here. If you spent any time here yourself you would already know that, so I suspect you are a shill to boost his ratings. Please also go away....!

  • Vin - Friday, April 11, 2008, 3:37PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Multiple accounts? No. I just have this one, and I give the article 1 star, mostly to counteract Mick's friends who give a piece of junk like this 5 stars for no good reason. I mean, if I want 50 links to various blogs, I will "favorite" them myself and click on them every week. When I turn to Yahoo finance, I expect that someone will do the clicking and reading for me and give me some coherent analysis. This piece just gives me a headache every week. I know, I should stop reading it, but I keep thinking it will eventually get better, even though it never does.

  • Hedgehog - Friday, April 11, 2008, 3:27PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    What I like about Yahoo Finance commentary audience is that it's largely fair. It votes not essentially with amount of stars, but also with quantity of votes themselves. Poor misha collects mere 50-60 votes (mostly negative though) a day, and at the same time Laura gathers ten times as many ratings in same timeframe. Looking back I have to admit that even though PT's ratings weren't higher than this, she attracted a lot more readers. So Mick is doing a great job by not expressing any personal opinion or attempt of analysis - that's precisely what was doing so much harm to PT. A blog of blogs is just boring, PT was at least entertaining. I miss her.

Showing comments 1-5 of 17Next >>

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