Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The fourth-quarter earnings season has crossed the 95% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 10%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 53%. On the flipside, Energy (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 22%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 4Q23 EPS reporting season.

U.S. equities inched higher on Thursday despite regional bank woes and ahead of the CPI revisions that will be released this morning. After hitting 5000 for the first time ever, the S&P 500 closed just below 5000. The Dow also closed at an all-time high. Big stock gainers include Arm Holdings PLC (ARM), up 48% and Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL), up 25%. The S&P 500 closed up less than 0.1%, the Dow was up 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%. Crude oil rose above $76 per barrel and gold was up $1 to $2049 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: Let the Shopping Begin

The pre-market on Wednesday signaled that two key stock indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite) were ready to end their win streaks. But both rallied after midday to finish in the green. We like to see the end-of-day cavalry ride to the rescue; late-day wins suggest that smart money believes a rally has legs.

The S&P 500 (SPX) bounced off its 50-week average on Monday morning and mounted a nice rally. A prominent hedge-fund manager was said to have unwound his short bond position, so yields fell, aiding stocks until about 1:00 pm. But, once again, the sellers reemerged, erasing all of the SPX gains. This is the second straight close below the 200-day average for the index, but is still not a breakdown as the drop below is by less than 1%. The index did hold the 4,200 area, so chart support remains intact, albeit barely.

Stocks edged higher on Thursday morning as investors awaited new inflation data on Friday and a likely U.S. government shutdown on Sunday. GDP data continued to show solid growth. The Commerce Department, in its third estimate, said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, unchanged from its prior estimate. Meanwhile, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 204,000 for the week ended September 23, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 215,000. In earnings news, Micron shares fell 4%, despite above-consensus fiscal 4Q results, after the chipmaker projected a wider-than-expected loss in the current quarter. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1% to $92.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1885 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

One week does not make a trend. Two weeks may suggest a trend. Three weeks start to make the case that a trend is in place. But in looking at the insider-sentiment data this week from Vickers Stock Research (which is bullish for a third week), we don't think trend analysis is needed. We think the absolute data says it all.

February Fumble

Investors Concede High Likelihood of Lost 2022, Brace for 2023

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 3Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings (among others) in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

For longer than we care to admit, we have been talking about the surprising and unrelenting climb in Treasury yields, as well as the consistently strong U.S. Dollar Index (USD). Yields and the greenback have been locked at the hip, rising sharply together since May 2021. While the stock market can do well when rates rise, as well as during periods of a higher currency, the speed at which these interrelated markets have moved has laid the boom on stocks.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ran to $88.90/barrel late Thursday afternoon, up significantly from last weeks' low of $76.25. Crude oil quickly reclaimed the key $85 area, where some major pieces of support exist. In addition, crude has broken the bearish trendline off the peak since mid-June. However, there is another downward sloping trendline off the peaks since July 8 that sits at $91. Chart resistance starts at $93 and runs up to $100, with a lot of additional resistance above that range.

Stocks fell sharply in 3Q 2022, with the S&P 500 down more than 5.2% for the period after a 9% decline in September. Year to date, the index is down 25% and in a bear market. Growth stocks have again been the weakest performers, as sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary have all lagged the major market indices. The leading sectors were value-oriented, including Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage declined 5.6% during the quarter, and the median stock declined 6.9%. The average BUY-rated stock dropped 5.0%, while the average HOLD-rated stock fell 7.1%. Will investors continue to favor value in 4Q22? Will high inflation drive continued outperformance in Energy? Given interest rates that are on the rise, we are thinking 2022 may be the one-in-five years that value leads growth for the full year. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. Regarding sectors, our current Over-Weights are Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, and Materials.

The FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, reaching a target rate of 3.00%-3.25%. That's the highest level since early 2008. The Fed also increased its year-end rate target to 4.4% from 3.4% after the June meeting. As usual, the stock market didn't know what to make of the hike and forecast, with the S&P 500 first falling 68 points, then soaring 88 points, and then plunging 118 points to finish at the lows of the day. The S&P 500 gave up 1.7% and closed at its lowest level since June 22. The Nasdaq and the QQQs both lost 1.8%.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning amid continued concerns about unchecked inflation, Fed rate hikes, and a potential recession. Retail sales were stronger than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in August following a revised 0.4% decline in July. The Reuters consensus forecast called for sales to be unchanged. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil fell $4 to $85 per barrel, while gold traded near $1680 per ounce.

Despite a late-day rally attempt, the stock market was weak again on Tuesday. That makes three straight days of losses and six declines over the past eight days. Interestingly, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all broke their 50-day moving averages for the first time since April. It was also noteworthy that the three indices also fell below their respective 50% retracements of the rally off the June lows -- but finished very close to this potential support level.

Stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Thursday morning, a day after Wednesday's sharp selloff, as the S&P continued to approach bear-market levels. Cisco shares fell 13%, despite above-consensus earnings, after the company offered disappointing guidance for the current fiscal fourth quarter. Kohl's also cut its full-year sales and earnings guidance, though the shares rose more than 2% after dropping sharply in the retail selloff on Wednesday. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.2%. Crude oil rose slightly to $110 per barrel, while gold rose $31 to $1847 per ounce.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, led by the Technology and Basic Materials sectors. On the earnings front, Chipotle Mexican Grill rose nearly 9% following strong 4Q results, while CVS Health fell 5%, despite a solid fourth quarter, after offering disappointing guidance for 2022. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil traded near $90 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1833 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning amid continued concerns about accelerating inflation. Disney shares fell more than 7% after the company posted disappointing fiscal 4Q earnings and much lower than expected growth in Disney+ subscriptions. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Crude oil rose slightly to $81.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1864 per ounce.

On Friday the 13th, the stock market closed at a fresh set of all-time highs, belying the triskaidekaphobes who thought the day would be bring some selling. This year, saying 'all-time highs' has started to sound like a broken record. Nothing seems to rattle the 2021 market, at least not for long, and that in itself is not a good thing.

Stocks fell again on Tuesday on continued inflation fears. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to more than 1.62%. On the employment front, the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that U.S. job openings rose by 597,000 to a record 8.1 million as of March 31. The data again highlighted the tight labor market for companies seeking to fill jobs in a recovering economy, and the potential impact of government stimulus programs in limiting the supply of workers. The Dow fell 1.3%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $65 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1838 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning as investors weighed new retail sales and producer price data, and awaited the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 5.3% in January, up from a decline of 1.0% in December and well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.1% growth. The Labor Department said that its producer price index rose 1.3% in January, up from 0.3% in December and the strongest gain since December 2009. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil traded near $60 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $1781 per ounce.

Stocks rose last week, showing impressive breadth including a new all-time high for the small-cap Russell 2000. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 400 points, or 1.37%. The S&P 500 rose 48 points, or 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 120 points or 1%. For the full week, investors favored defensive stocks, while shying away from technology high-flyers. Last week, the Dow was up 4.1%, on top of the prior week's 6.9% gain. The S&P 500 was up 2.2%, propelling the index to a new all-time high. The Nasdaq was down for the week, falling half a percentage point. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is back in positive territory with a gain of 3.3%. The S&P is up 11.0%, and the Nasdaq is up 31.8%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 5.3%, the S&P 500 is up 14.9%, and the Nasdaq is up 38.5%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, adding to Thursday's gains, amid cautious optimism about an eventual fiscal stimulus deal in Washington. The positive sentiment also reflected diminishing prospects for a contested presidential election, as Joe Biden continued to widen his lead in both national and swing state polls. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil fell slightly to about $41 per barrel, while gold rose $39 to $1934 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, adding to Thursday's gains, amid cautious optimism about an eventual fiscal stimulus deal in Washington. The positive sentiment also reflected diminishing prospects for a contested presidential election, as Joe Biden continued to widen his lead in both national and swing state polls. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil fell slightly to about $41 per barrel, while gold rose $39 to $1934 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning amid continued U.S.-China tensions over Hong Kong and weak consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that consumer spending fell 13.6% in April, nearly double the 6.9% drop in March and more than the Reuters consensus forecast, which called for a decline of 12.6%. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $33.50 per barrel, while gold rose $23 to $1751 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning amid continued U.S.-China tensions over Hong Kong and weak consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that consumer spending fell 13.6% in April, nearly double the 6.9% drop in March and more than the Reuters consensus forecast, which called for a decline of 12.6%. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $33.50 per barrel, while gold rose $23 to $1751 per ounce.

Stocks pared early gains on Friday morning, a day after Thursday's record selloff. The recovery was mixed, with strong gains in financial and tech stocks, and continued losses in the healthcare, energy and utility sectors. House Democrats and the White House appeared close to agreeing on a new economic stimulus package, and the Fed said that it would buy $37 billion of bonds across a range of maturities. The S&P rose 0.7%, the Dow 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $32 per barrel, while gold fell $28 to $1563 per ounce.

Stocks pared early gains on Friday morning, a day after Thursday's record selloff. The recovery was mixed, with strong gains in financial and tech stocks, and continued losses in the healthcare, energy and utility sectors. House Democrats and the White House appeared close to agreeing on a new economic stimulus package, and the Fed said that it would buy $37 billion of bonds across a range of maturities. The S&P rose 0.7%, the Dow 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $32 per barrel, while gold fell $28 to $1563 per ounce.

Cardinal Health is the third-largest global logistics provider engaged in wholesale pharmaceutical and medical products. Similar to the other two peers, the company has evolved over time and has become entrenched in the sourcing and distribution of brand-name and generic pharmaceuticals and related services to hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories, and physician offices. Through acquisitions, Cardinal Health has the ability to manufacture commodity products and certain medical devices.

We first wrote about copper on October 30, when prices were around $2.69. We followed up with a piece on December 12, when copper was at $2.80. Our thought along the way was that copper was trying to bottom. There were (and still are) factors that favor the metal going higher. But it might get tougher from here.

We first wrote about copper on October 30, when prices were around $2.69. We followed up with a piece on December 12, when copper was at $2.80. Our thought along the way was that copper was trying to bottom. There were (and still are) factors that favor the metal going higher. But it might get tougher from here.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning amid continued U.S.-China tensions over Hong Kong and weak consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that consumer spending fell 13.6% in April, nearly double the 6.9% drop in March and more than the Reuters consensus forecast, which called for a decline of 12.6%. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $33.50 per barrel, while gold rose $23 to $1751 per ounce.