Returns can get a bit dicey for the stock market from February into mid-March, especially in a presidential election year. Yet February 12 saw a massive reversal in relative strength, one that could be described as 'Revenge of the Small Caps.' That also can be said about the three trading days before 2/12. The Russell 2000 (IWM) rose 1.8% on February 12 and had popped 5% in three days. The iShares Micro-Cap ETF (EWC) gained 2.8% and surged over 6% in three days. The IWM is quickly approaching a key technical level at 205, which was the recent high in late December as well as the key breakdown level from January 2022.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) hit a recovery high of $100.53 on December 27, entering an area of thick chart resistance at $100+. So far, we have seen a minor pullback to $97, which is a key technical point as it was former chart support and also is where the 21-day exponential (EMA) sits. Daily momentum cycled into overbought territory in December and has traced out two bearish divergences, while the momentum uptrend has broken. Trendline support off the secondary low on November 13 also has been taken out. To get things going on the downside, $95.50, or the location of more chart support and the 200-day, has to be broken. That would open the door for a possible decline to the $89-$93 area, which is a 61.8%-38.2% retracement of the recent rally. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's COT data has improved and is bullish, while sentiment for the two-, five-, and 10-year Treasurys remains bearish.

Following Tuesday's explosive move higher for the stock market, prices for the major indices paused for the balance of last week. But the end result was impressive considering the size of Tuesday's moonshot and how far the market has come since late October. Stocks are working off short-term overbought conditions in time rather than price, which is bullish. The most-important part of the week was the breakdown in the five-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury yields after they traced out small tops.

In this edition, 3M's moat narrows; cybersecurity firms shine; P&C insurers' outlooks differ; and Hanesbrands, Grab Holdings, and Evergy.

Stocks gave up early gains on Wednesday morning as investors continued to weigh comments from Fed officials along with a new round of earnings reports. Warner Bros. Discovery plunged more than 15% after the company reported a wider-than-expected 3Q loss amid weak network advertising revenue. Disney will report fiscal 4Q results after the close. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell to $76 per barrel, while gold traded near $1963 per ounce.

Breadth in the stock market remains our main concern, with the cumulative NYSE New 52-week Highs-NYSE New 52-week Lows still below its 50-day moving average. In addition, the percentage of stocks on the S&P 500 (SPX) and on the S&P 100 (OEX) above their 200-day moving averages remains weak at just 40% -- and in the dangerous territory that exists below 45%. The NYSE Composite is a bit worse at 38%.

The stock market continues to tread water, bouncing off both short-term support and resistance. The streak of sideways price action gets longer by the day. Going all the way back to June 15, or 65 trading days, the S&P 500 (SPX), the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have gone nowhere. One might think this is highly unusual for such a length of time, but it often happens.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and awaited key inflation data later this week. Tyson Foods shares fell more than 6% after the company posted weak fiscal 3Q sales and earnings and announced that it would close four poultry plants. On the positive side, Berkshire Hathaway shares rose 3% on a 6% increase in second-quarter income, helped by higher investment income and strength in the company's insurance holdings. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $82 per barrel while gold traded near $1969 per ounce.

Stocks were mostly lower on Thursday morning following new inflation and employment data. The Labor Department reported that its producer price index for final demand rose 2.3% year-over-year in April, down from 2.7% growth in March. The core PPI, excluding volatile food, energy and trade services prices, rose 3.4%, also slowing from 3.7% a month earlier. First-time unemployment benefit claims rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 for the week ended May 6. The reading was the highest since October 2021 and exceeded the Reuters consensus forecast of 245,000. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was flat.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, extending last week's losses, following earnings reports from Walmart and Home Depot. Walmart posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q23 results, though the shares fell on management's disappointing FY24 guidance. Home Depot shares fell sharply after the company reported mixed 4Q results and projected lower earnings and flat sales in FY23. The Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose to $77 per barrel, while gold traded near $1844 per ounce.

While the volume of insider transactions reported by Vickers Stock Research remains relatively low because of restrictions placed on executives, beneficial owners, and directors during earnings season, the trading that is taking place has now been cautious for three consecutive weeks. New to the mix this week is a bearish pop in Vickers' NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio. That reading had been holding up, even as the Nasdaq one-week reading has been weak. But now, the NYSE reading also is showing some strain - and the combination of now-weakening NYSE sentiment combined with ongoing-weak Nasdaq sentiment is having a negative impact on Vickers' broader (eight-week) sentiment readings.

The S&P 500 ran into key resistance recently at the 4,175 region and, so far, the pause looks like it could be a bull flag. The index has come a long way, so we will give the bulls the benefit of the doubt in the short term. Of course, a break of the flag to the upside would bring the next piece of resistance into view at 4,225, which is a 50% retracement of the bear market.

April Deluge: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

This edition features the changing winds of solar energy, the wide moats in network security, our pondering Zendesk's recent acquisition, and Fresenius, Deliveroo, and New World Development.

The S&P 500 and the broad market closed a terrific week with a surge om November 5 following positive employment data. The '500' finished at yet another all-time high.

The July 19 trading week began with somber discussions of an overdue correction, and stocks wobbled - but investors bought the dip and shares raced to new all-time highs. Although stocks suffered a drubbing on Monday of that week, with the benchmark S&P 500 down 1.6% for the session, they clawed back on Tuesday through Thursday and then staged a big-finish Friday.

With April winding down, you can count on someone, somewhere saying, 'sell in May and go away.' That pronouncement is mainly popular because it rhymes. While it is true that summer is typically a period of relative underperformance, market timing rarely works. And sometimes summer is a good time for stock performance.

Earnings Help Support a Stretched Market

Stocks fell sharply on Monday morning amid continued election uncertainty and rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe. New home sales data was also weak. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales fell 3.5% to a seasonally adjusted 959,000 units in September, below the Reuters consensus of 1.025 million. The Dow fell 2.0%, the S&P 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $38.50 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1908 per ounce.

conomic Data, New Infections Send Conflicting Signals

conomic Data, New Infections Send Conflicting Signals

We scrutinize insider-transaction data every week, but admit that there are times when the results are not overly meaningful. For a host of factors, now seems to be one of those times.

We scrutinize insider-transaction data every week, but admit that there are times when the results are not overly meaningful. For a host of factors, now seems to be one of those times.

Check Point Software Technologies is a pure-play cybersecurity vendor. The company offers solutions for network, endpoint, cloud, and mobile security in addition to security management. Check Point, a software specialist, sells to enterprises, businesses, and consumers. At the end of 2017, 47% of its revenue was from the Americas, 36% from Europe, and 17% from Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa. The firm, based in Tel Aviv, Israel, was founded in 1993 and has about 5,000 employees.

We'll start our weekly analysis of insider sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research by getting the headline out of the way. There is nothing in current insider sentiment that we feel is cause for alarm. Indeed, our word of the week (it was 'benign' last week) is stable. Yes, sentiment is stable -- but that's not to say that there aren't a few details to pondered.

We'll start our weekly analysis of insider sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research by getting the headline out of the way. There is nothing in current insider sentiment that we feel is cause for alarm. Indeed, our word of the week (it was 'benign' last week) is stable. Yes, sentiment is stable -- but that's not to say that there aren't a few details to pondered.

conomic Data, New Infections Send Conflicting Signals

We scrutinize insider-transaction data every week, but admit that there are times when the results are not overly meaningful. For a host of factors, now seems to be one of those times.

We'll start our weekly analysis of insider sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research by getting the headline out of the way. There is nothing in current insider sentiment that we feel is cause for alarm. Indeed, our word of the week (it was 'benign' last week) is stable. Yes, sentiment is stable -- but that's not to say that there aren't a few details to pondered.

The major indices are down at midday on Wednesday amid continued earnings and M&A news. Uber was down as much as 8% on the day after the ride-sharing company's post-IPO lockup ended this morning. Industries doing well today include Independent Power & Renewable Electricity Producers, Personal Products, and Food Products. Industries showing weakness include Real Estate Management & Development, Construction Materials, and Leisure Products. The VIX is down 0.02 to 13.08 after the previous close of 13.10. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $56.50 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1494 per ounce.

The major indices are down at midday on Wednesday amid continued earnings and M&A news. Uber was down as much as 8% on the day after the ride-sharing company's post-IPO lockup ended this morning. Industries doing well today include Independent Power & Renewable Electricity Producers, Personal Products, and Food Products. Industries showing weakness include Real Estate Management & Development, Construction Materials, and Leisure Products. The VIX is down 0.02 to 13.08 after the previous close of 13.10. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $56.50 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1494 per ounce.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday morning as investors awaited a widely expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, along with comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. On the earnings front, Apple shares rose more than 4% after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results and provided positive sales guidance for fiscal 4Q. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose slightly to about $58 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1440 per ounce.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday morning as investors awaited a widely expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, along with comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. On the earnings front, Apple shares rose more than 4% after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results and provided positive sales guidance for fiscal 4Q. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose slightly to about $58 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1440 per ounce.

The major indices are flat at midday on Monday, with Energy the only sector showing significant gains. Tesla is holding a press event this afternoon, at which the electric car maker is expected to reveal new details about its progress with autonomous vehicles. This event comes just two days before the company reports quarterly earnings. Industries doing well today include Household Products, Oil & Gas, and Tobacco. Industries showing weakness include Metals & Mining, Distributors, and Household Durables. The Dow fell 0.1%, while the S&P and the Nasdaq were flat. Crude oil rose nearly 3.0% to about $66 per barrel, while gold traded near $1276 per ounce.

The major indices are flat at midday on Monday, with Energy the only sector showing significant gains. Tesla is holding a press event this afternoon, at which the electric car maker is expected to reveal new details about its progress with autonomous vehicles. This event comes just two days before the company reports quarterly earnings. Industries doing well today include Household Products, Oil & Gas, and Tobacco. Industries showing weakness include Metals & Mining, Distributors, and Household Durables. The Dow fell 0.1%, while the S&P and the Nasdaq were flat. Crude oil rose nearly 3.0% to about $66 per barrel, while gold traded near $1276 per ounce.

Generally speaking, insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research remain benign, albeit with several 'one-off' issues that leave the sentiment readings a bit adrift.

Generally speaking, insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research remain benign, albeit with several 'one-off' issues that leave the sentiment readings a bit adrift.

Equity traders, for once, can say thank you Mr. Fed. The U.S. stock markets rallied on the Federal Reserve's announcement Wednesday afternoon that it will be "patient" on future rate increases, signaling at least a pause in rate hikes and perhaps a slowdown in the balance-sheet normalization program. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on Wednesday, the Dow was up 1.8%, and the Nasdaq vaulted 2.2% for the day. Intraday trading was strongly positive for most the day and then spiked even higher on the Fed announcement. The S&P 500 gave back just a little bit at the end of the day, but also blew through a near-term resistance level at 2,670.

Equity traders, for once, can say thank you Mr. Fed. The U.S. stock markets rallied on the Federal Reserve's announcement Wednesday afternoon that it will be "patient" on future rate increases, signaling at least a pause in rate hikes and perhaps a slowdown in the balance-sheet normalization program. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on Wednesday, the Dow was up 1.8%, and the Nasdaq vaulted 2.2% for the day. Intraday trading was strongly positive for most the day and then spiked even higher on the Fed announcement. The S&P 500 gave back just a little bit at the end of the day, but also blew through a near-term resistance level at 2,670.