Despite April Stumble, Positive Stock-Market Outlook for 2024

Stocks are little-changed on Monday morning. While this week is full of major earnings report, Fed news, and significant economic data, investors appear to be in 'wait and see' mode for now -- with the biggest events still to come on Tuesday (earnings), Wednesday (Fed), Thursday (earnings again), and Friday (employment). Tension in the Middle East is also on the rise, likely adding to hesitation on the part of traders. As of this writing, the major stock indices are in a tight range between off 0.04% and up 0.30%. Crude oil is lower by about 1.15%, while gold is up about 0.35%.

Stocks fell again on Friday morning amid continued turmoil in the Middle East and concerns about high bond yields and further Fed rate hikes. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that rising bond yields could limit the need for additional rate hikes, but that the Fed could still raise rates if necessary to cool the economy and control inflation. On the earnings front, American Express reported strong 3Q results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose 1% to $90 per barrel, while gold rose $11 to $1991 per ounce.

Earnings season moved into higher gear on Thursday as investors weighed reports from a range of major companies, along with new housing market and employment data. Netflix and Tesla both fell following mixed reports and guidance, while Johnson & Johnson rose after reporting strong 2Q results and raising its full-year outlook. On the housing front, U.S. sales of existing homes fell to a five-month low in June. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell 3.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million, below the Reuters consensus of 4.20 million. Meanwhile, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended July 15, below the Reuters consensus of 242,000. Continuing claims rose by 33,000 to 1.754 million. The Dow rose 0.47%, the S&P fell 0.68%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.05%. Crude oil rose slightly to $75.50 per barrel, while gold fell $9 to $1972 per ounce.

Dividend growth is among our most important themes for 2023, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are sending off three important signals amid the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is clearly focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important during periods of economic weakness and an outright earnings recession. Here are stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

The major indices were little changed on Friday morning, as gains in the Consumer Discretionary and Staples sectors were offset by declines in Financials, Energy, and Materials. On the earnings front, Procter & Gamble shares rose more than 3% after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal 3Q earnings, helped by price increases and strong sales of new products, and raised its full-year sales forecast. Hospital operator HCA Healthcare also rose 5% after reporting strong 1Q results and raising its sales and earnings guidance. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil rose to $78 per barrel, while gold dropped $31 to $1988 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Monday morning, led by declines in the Technology, Communication Services, and Energy sectors. Investors awaited a heavy week for earnings, including reports from Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, and the Fed's interest rate announcement on Wednesday. A 25-basis-point hike is widely expected, though much of the focus will again be on Chairman Powell's follow-up press conference. Investors will also weigh the government's January employment report on Friday morning. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $79 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1939 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: Earnings, Inflation Data, and GDP

Earnings from major companies will continue on Friday, with 2Q reports from Twitter, Verizon, and Schlumberger. On Thursday, stocks extended their winning streak, with strong gains in the Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors. Tesla shares rose nearly 10% following strong 2Q results, while AT&T fell more than 7%, despite above-consensus earnings, after management lowered its free cash flow guidance. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 251,000 for the week ended July 16, up from 244,000 a week earlier and above the Bloomberg consensus estimate. The Dow rose 0.51%, the S&P 0.99%, and the Nasdaq 1.36%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $96.50 per barrel, while gold rose 1% to $1718 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday morning amid more earnings reports from major retailers. Target shares plunged 24% after the company reported much weaker than expected 1Q earnings and warned of further pressure from rising fuel and freight costs. Lowe's shares also fell, despite above-consensus earnings, as investors focused on the company's disappointing comps sales. The Dow fell 1.9%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.3%. Crude oil fell 1% to $111.50 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1812 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following more signs of accelerating inflation. The Labor Department said that U.S. consumer prices rose at a 7.5% annualized rate in January, up from 7.0% in December. The reading exceeded the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 7.3% and was the highest since 1982. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose an annualized 6.0%, up from 5.5% in December. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $92 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1841 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve announced the start of its $15 billion per month tapering program. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that the Fed would prefer to wait for the completion of the tapering plan, and further improvement in the labor market, before considering higher interest rates. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil rose slightly to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1796 per ounce.

Stocks were largely flat on Monday morning as investors weighed positive employment data along with the impact of rising Delta variant cases. The Labor Department's JOLTS report said that U.S. job openings rose by 590,000 to 10.1 million on the last day of June, above the consensus forecast of 9.28 million. Hiring also rose to 6.7 million in June from 6.0 million in May. The data came after a strong July employment report on Friday morning. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $66 per barrel, while gold dropped $28 to $1735 per ounce.

The second quarter in 2021 was a good one for stocks, as the S&P 500 increased more than 8.5%. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage advanced 5.5%, and the median stock gained 4.0%. The average Argus BUY-rated stock increased 6.0%, while the average HOLD-rated stock rose 4.0%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2021? Will small-caps continue their recent strong run? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks will resume outperformance over time -- but think this may be the one year in five when value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps, the promise of the vaccine is encouraging for these companies, which typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed despite the recent run, and this group continues to look well-positioned in 2021.

Stocks fell on Friday morning following a new round of first-quarter earnings reports from major companies along with March consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose a strong 4.2% last month after a decline of 1.0% in February. The reading came in slightly ahead of the Reuters consensus forecast of 4.1%. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1769 per ounce.

Even with indices bobbing around all-time highs, the stock market continues to meander and has not gotten much done of late. That said, successful rotation has kept breadth strong. Most stocks are trading above their long-term support. In the near-term, though, the market is showing some wear and tear.

Stocks fluctuated on Thursday in choppy trading as investors weighed weekly employment data, a continued decline in new U.S. coronavirus cases, and a warning from President Biden about challenges from China. The Labor Department reported that both first-time and continuing unemployment claims fell from the prior week, though both readings were above consensus forecasts. After the close, Disney posted an unexpected fiscal 1Q profit amid strong growth in Disney+ subscribers. The Dow fell 0.02%, the S&P rose 0.17%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.38%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $58 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1826 per ounce.

COVID-19 and Election Uncertainty: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Much of the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research suggests that things are pretty much as expected in the world of insider transactions. Earnings season is still underway and the volume of insider transactions is therefore low. As well, most of Vickers' insider indexes and insider sell/buy ratios are either neutral or slightly bearish. That makes sense as insiders jumped in when stock prices cratered on COVID-19 fears, and those same insiders have pulled back as stocks have rebounded. So is there anything of note in current insider activity? Why yes there is.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on China for its handling of the coronavirus crisis. Manufacturing data was also weak. The Institute for Supply Management said that its factory index fell to 41.5 in April, the lowest level since April 2009, from 49.1 in March. Amazon shares fell more than 7% after the company warned that it could post a quarterly loss due to high expenses related to the pandemic. The S&P fell 2.8%, the Dow 2.4%, and the Nasdaq 3.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $19 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1708 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on China for its handling of the coronavirus crisis. Manufacturing data was also weak. The Institute for Supply Management said that its factory index fell to 41.5 in April, the lowest level since April 2009, from 49.1 in March. Amazon shares fell more than 7% after the company warned that it could post a quarterly loss due to high expenses related to the pandemic. The S&P fell 2.8%, the Dow 2.4%, and the Nasdaq 3.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $19 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1708 per ounce.

Nokia is a leading vendor in the telecommunications equipment industry. The company's network business derives revenue from selling wireless and fixed-line hardware, software, and services. Nokia's technology segment licenses its patent portfolio to handset manufacturers and makes royalties from Nokia-branded cellphones. The company, headquartered in Espoo, Finland, operates on a global scale, with most of its revenue from communication service providers.

We'll start our weekly analysis of insider sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research by getting the headline out of the way. There is nothing in current insider sentiment that we feel is cause for alarm. Indeed, our word of the week (it was 'benign' last week) is stable. Yes, sentiment is stable -- but that's not to say that there aren't a few details to pondered.

We'll start our weekly analysis of insider sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research by getting the headline out of the way. There is nothing in current insider sentiment that we feel is cause for alarm. Indeed, our word of the week (it was 'benign' last week) is stable. Yes, sentiment is stable -- but that's not to say that there aren't a few details to pondered.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on China for its handling of the coronavirus crisis. Manufacturing data was also weak. The Institute for Supply Management said that its factory index fell to 41.5 in April, the lowest level since April 2009, from 49.1 in March. Amazon shares fell more than 7% after the company warned that it could post a quarterly loss due to high expenses related to the pandemic. The S&P fell 2.8%, the Dow 2.4%, and the Nasdaq 3.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $19 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1708 per ounce.

We'll start our weekly analysis of insider sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research by getting the headline out of the way. There is nothing in current insider sentiment that we feel is cause for alarm. Indeed, our word of the week (it was 'benign' last week) is stable. Yes, sentiment is stable -- but that's not to say that there aren't a few details to pondered.

Current insider sentiment, as measured by proprietary metrics from Vickers Stock Research, remains benign in the face of uneven earnings reports from bellwether stocks. In this quiet environment for insider transactions, we typically pull back our sentiment view so as to avoid less-meaningful one-week data. To that end...