Ever so quietly, commodity prices are starting to percolate and, impressively, this action is occurring with a rising U.S. Dollar Index (USD). What would be happening if the USD was in a downtrend or reversing lower? We might be back in the 1970s, which was not a pretty time for the stock market, inflation, and interest rates.

After Friday's bearish intraday reversal and heavy downside volume, especially in the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector, we did see some downside follow-through on Monday. But it certainly wasn't convincing. Once again, the market bounced off its lows as algorithmic trading seemingly took over. The Nasdaq and the QQQs fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) clawed its way back, dropping a mere 0.1%.

While everyone in the investment world will be waiting (nervously or confidently) for Nvidia's quarterly numbers after the close on Wednesday, there certainly are other important Q4 EPS reports this week -- like those from WMT, HD, PANW, ADI, SNPS, VRSK, INTU, BKNG, MELI, EOG, BRK.B, among others. In addition to NVDA, stocks that are quite extended after large-to-massive moves since late October (about four months ago) include PANW, INTU, BKNG, MELI, and BRK.B. Betting on more near-term upside from these stocks, no matter what they report, is a tough technical game as they all have extreme 14-day and 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings in the high 70s to mid-80s. Needless to say, this should be another interesting week.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following the Labor Department's revision to the inflation data. After seasonal revisions to CPI, December's reading was revised down to 0.2% from the prior 0.3% increase. November's CPI was revised up from a 0.1% increase to 0.2% after the adjustment. The seasonal adjustments are made annually, coinciding with January's CPI release, to account for price movements in the previous year. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% and in intraday trading the index was above 5,000. The Dow is down $0.3% and the Nasdaq is up 0.9%. Crude oil is trading above $76 per barrel, while gold lost $10 to trade near $2038.

This weekend, in Vegas, it's the Chiefs versus the 49ers. Usher is the halftime show; Tom Brady appears in a commercial; and Taylor Swift fans add a whole new demographic to the fan base. But aside from all that, there is big money at stake. For our list this week, we present possible ways to invest in the Super Bowl.

With earnings season nearing an end, insider sentiment remains generally positive -- which is good news in light of the solid move higher in share prices over the past two weeks. After two weeks of bullish signals that were based on light transaction volume, this week brings 'more typical' insider-sentiment indicators that are built on an increasing number of insider transactions. The one-week sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research has softened, but remains strong enough to keep the eight-week data solidly neutral. The weak link, though not seriously so, is sentiment from insiders on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. With tech stocks outperforming over the past few weeks and for the year-to-date, that's not a huge surprise.

Stocks finished near breakeven on Thursday after giving up most of their early gains, as investors weighed new inflation and employment data. The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 4.7% from the prior year in July, down from 4.8% in June. The reading was the lowest since October 2021 and raised the likelihood that the Fed would hold interest rates steady at its September meeting. However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the CPI data, though positive, showed that the Fed still had 'more work to do' in bringing down inflation. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 248,000 for the week ended August 5, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 230,000. Continuing claims fell by 8,000 to 1.684 million. The Dow rose 0.15%, the S&P 0.03%, and the Nasdaq 0.12%. Crude oil fell nearly 2% to $83 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1946 per ounce.

Stocks were mostly lower on Thursday morning following new inflation and employment data. The Labor Department reported that its producer price index for final demand rose 2.3% year-over-year in April, down from 2.7% growth in March. The core PPI, excluding volatile food, energy and trade services prices, rose 3.4%, also slowing from 3.7% a month earlier. First-time unemployment benefit claims rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 for the week ended May 6. The reading was the highest since October 2021 and exceeded the Reuters consensus forecast of 245,000. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was flat.

It is a massive week for tech stocks and the overall market, with GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, TXN, KLAC, NOW, SPOT and others reporting Tuesday through Thursday. Also stepping up to the plate will be KO, PEP, MCD, WHR, UPS, MRK, CAT, CMG, BA,V, MA, FSLR, XOM, and GE. This likely will be the largest market-cap week of the EPS season.

Stocks finished sharply lower on Thursday after giving up early gains. Investors weighed earnings from a range of major companies, including Disney, PepsiCo, and AbbVie. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 13,000 to 196,000 for the week ended February 4, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 190,000. Continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.688 million. The Dow fell 0.73%, the S&P 0.88%, and the Nasdaq 1.02%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $1860 per ounce.

The market took a breather on Monday after strong gains late last week. There's been an 11% rally for the S&P 500 off its October 12 low, a 10% pop for the S&P 100 (OEX), and a 13% gain for the S&P 500 Equal Weight (SPXEW) and the NYSE. So how much has market breadth improved?

Stocks surged on Thursday following positive inflation data, recording their strongest one-day advance since 2020. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 7.7% from the prior year in October, down from 8.2% in September and below the consensus forecast of 7.9%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose at a lower-than-expected 6.3% rate. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 to 225,000 for the week ended November 5, slightly above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims rose to 1.493 million, also up from the prior week and above consensus. The Dow soared 3.70%, the S&P 5.54%, and the Nasdaq 7.35%. Crude oil rose slightly to $86 per barrel, while gold jumped $47 to $1760 per ounce.

At least the major indices did not go down last week. But it sure felt like it after Friday's wipeout, which came after two very strong days to start the week. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week, the Nasdaq and the QQQs gained 0.7%, the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) tacked on 3%, and IWM added 2%. Over the past three weeks, the S&P 500 has been clocked for almost 12%, the Nasdaq and the QQQs have plummeted 13%, and the MDY and IWM have fallen 12%.

Stocks rose modestly on Monday morning, led by the Consumer Staples sector, after recovering from early losses. Chinese economic data was weak, as retail sales and industrial output both fell in July and missed consensus forecasts. On the housing front, the National Association of Home Builders said that its homebuilder sentiment index fell to 49 in August, down from 55 in July and the eighth straight monthly decline. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil fell $3 to $89 per barrel, while gold fell $20 to $1796 per ounce.

Earnings, Economy Roll along through Market Wreckage

Stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Monday morning amid continued fierce fighting in Ukraine, new sanctions on Russia, and President Putin's decision over the weekend to place Russian nuclear forces on 'special combat readiness.' The Treasury Department also froze the assets of the Russian Central Bank held in the U.S. Ukrainian and Russian representatives held talks in Belarus, though the Ukrainian government did not expect any progress toward ending the conflict. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 4% to $95 per barrel, while gold traded near $1913 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks edged higher on Friday morning, led by the Technology and Communication Services sectors. Johnson & Johnson announced that it would split into two companies, one focused on pharmaceuticals and the other on consumer health products. On the employment front, the Labor Department, in its monthly JOLTS report, said that U.S. job openings slipped to 10.4 million on the last day of September, down from 10.6 million a month earlier but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 10.3 million. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $81 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1864 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks fell on Thursday on mixed economic data and continued concerns about slowing economic growth. The Commerce Department reported that August retail sales rose by 0.7% after a downwardly revised 1.8% drop in July, while jobless claims rose 20,000 to 332,000. Discretionary and REIT stocks were the leaders and materials and energy stocks were the laggards. The Dow fell 0.2% and the S&P declined 0.2%, while the Nasdaq closed a positive 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $41 to $1754 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday morning as investors weighed prospects for the Biden administration's $3.5 trillion budget plan, which was approved by the House on Tuesday, and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's symposium later in the week. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders were flat in July, down from a 1.0% increase in June and below the Reuters consensus forecast calling for 0.5% growth. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $67.50 per barrel, while gold fell $23 to $1786 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Inflation: Out of the Bag?

While the year-to-date winners in 2021 were the big losers in 2020, the winners in 2020 are hanging in there so far in 2021. There is always some degree of reversion to the mean, be that in the stock market, sports, politics, the economy, consumer confidence, etc. Still, one thing that has remained consistently bullish for the overall stock market going back to 2009 is market breadth.

The 10-year Treasury yield has soared after bottoming in March 2020. Over the past three weeks, T-yields have flattened after getting very overbought on the daily and weekly momentum charts, and also tracing out some daily negative divergences. On the daily, yields look like they might roll over after the huge move since August.