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Speculators' Role in Oil Surge: More Than Meets the Eye

Posted May 23, 2008 10:28am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

The debate over speculators' role in crude's surge raging at the highest levels:

"This (high level of oil prices) is not about blame; it's about supply and demand...." Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson told CNBC yesterday. "All the research I have done, speculators have had very little impact."

"We are not very happy with the rise in oil prices... it has nothing to do with OPEC," counters OPEC general secretary Abdalla Salem El-Badri, Reuters reports.

Paulson and Badri of course have their own agendas and the truth is probably in between such extremes views. What's important to remember is that "speculation" in crude (or anything else) is a two-way street.

Although oil futures recently moved dramatically into contango -- where future prices are higher than spot prices - it's wrong to say all speculators are simply betting on higher oil prices.

There is heavy put buying in the PowerShares Commodity Index, reports Jon Najarian, co-founder of OptionMONSTER.com and a CNBC contributor.

There are also reports of short sellers targeting major integrated oil companies ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron, and many traders have been making leveraged bets that oil will fall via the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF.

The irony is that all the speculation that oil will fall is helping keep prices high because short sellers have been forced to cover positions by buying oil or related proxies.

In other words, speculators are playing some role in crude's ascent, just not in the ways you've been led to believe.

51 Comments

Miguel
Miguel - Friday May 23, 2008 11:05AM EDT

oil 150

DelJ
DelJ - Friday May 23, 2008 11:10AM EDT

BULLSHIT article - the agenda is at Yahoo! finance and MSNBC - both spreading the supply and demand price related rise myth being spread by the idiot Treasury Secretary in an attempt to deflect blame from where it truely lies for the rapid accent of oil prices - on the idiot Fed Reserve chairmen (last and current) for lowering the prime lending rate too far too fast, sending the value of the dollar to record lows and inflation to record highs - low dollar value then prompting out of control speculative oil futures buying frenzy - with investors and giant hedge funds deliberately driving up prices to make a quick buck - at the expense of all else. It's all about making money for the elite ruling class in this country and old world Europe.

Gentleman Jim
Gentleman Jim - Friday May 23, 2008 11:14AM EDT

My prediction? PAIN!

Les
Les - Friday May 23, 2008 11:16AM EDT

Hedge in oil futures! Get rich! I did:-) Go to $ 200 a barrel baby!

William
William - Friday May 23, 2008 11:20AM EDT

How do futures traders have anything to trade. Every barrel of oil that comes out of the ground is already pre-sold to some major oil company at a benchmark price. There is no oil to trade with the current supply/demand situation. Are the oil companies trading among themselves to run the price up? It seems these are just phantom trades and the futures trading is nothing more than a shell game to increase the price of oil. Perhaps the government should re regulate the oil traders. From what I read the futures racket has added about 70 cents a gallon to the price of gas. Sounds like Las Vegas.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 23, 2008 11:21AM EDT

200

Selvasekar S
Selvasekar S - Friday May 23, 2008 11:22AM EDT

For commodities like Oil, Rice, wheat which are essential for living, there should be a ban on short term futures. There should be only spot and 6months+ futures. T Major consumers like US, Europe, China, India Brazil should enact laws on this. Such move will eliminate speculators out of the market. I suspect, banks borrowed short term loans at 2% from Fed, and betting on commodity futures to recover their mortgage losses. Fed is lending its own finger to poke its eys.

William
William - Friday May 23, 2008 11:22AM EDT

How do futures traders have anything to trade? Every barrel of oil that comes out of the ground is already presold to some major oil company at a benchmark price. There is no surplus oil to trade with the current supply/demand situation. Are the oil companies trading among themselves to run the price up? It seems these are just phantom trades and the futures trading is nothing more than a shell game to increase the price of oil. Perhaps the government should re regulate the oil traders. From research I have read the futures racket has added about 70 cents a gallon to the price of gas. Sounds like Las Vegas.

August L
August L - Friday May 23, 2008 11:23AM EDT

I totally agree with liftoff. Depress the dollar, costs go up.

Rob
Rob - Friday May 23, 2008 11:23AM EDT

Speculators who hoard can have an actual impact on prices. The price of rice may reflect this, as millions of people add slightly to their stockpiles and create shortages. Financial speculators do not. They don't have barrels of oil in their back yards. Oil pumped out of the ground must be consumed at roughly the same rate. The problem is not speculators guessing that there is no excess of supply. It's consumers who make their guesses forever true.

Mark
Mark - Friday May 23, 2008 11:26AM EDT

Money,Power & Greed is really what its about. But you can't take it to the grave with you.

John Davis
John Davis - Friday May 23, 2008 11:26AM EDT

If tight supply is causing the rise in oil futures, why is it that there are several Iranian tankers sitting off shore loaded with no where to go??

BradleyD
BradleyD - Friday May 23, 2008 11:37AM EDT

You folks are funny. None of you have any idea what you are writing about so you should spend you time doing something more usefull like the job you were hired to do between 9 and 5 rather than surfing the net. Back to your knitting folks,

BradleyD
BradleyD - Friday May 23, 2008 11:38AM EDT

You folks are funny. None of you have any idea what you are writing about so you should spend you time doing something more usefull like the job you were hired to do between 9 and 5 rather than surfing the net. Back to your knitting folks,

BradleyD
BradleyD - Friday May 23, 2008 11:39AM EDT

You folks are funny. None of you have any idea what you are writing about so you should spend you time doing something more usefull like the job you were hired to do between 9 and 5 rather than surfing the net. Back to your knitting folks,

BradleyD
BradleyD - Friday May 23, 2008 11:39AM EDT

You folks are funny. None of you have any idea what you are writing about so you should spend you time doing something more usefull like the job you were hired to do between 9 and 5 rather than surfing the net. Back to your knitting folks,

KenL
KenL - Friday May 23, 2008 11:40AM EDT

Yeah, go ahead and hedge in Oil...might as well after following the Real Estate frenzy. Disgusting.

- Friday May 23, 2008 11:44AM EDT

liftoff is right on the money. Financial players have learned how to play the "bubble" in different asset classes to their benefit. It has become a rigged system in which the financial markets divert profits from other industries into the financial sector. Every part of the economy is suffering under high oil prices EXCEPT the financial sector which is making money hand over fist. It is the financial sector which sets the price of oil... go figure.

Ed
Ed - Friday May 23, 2008 11:45AM EDT

If you go to Yahoo and search "peak oil" you will find lots of articles about this subject. Many countries are in declining production such as Mexico and Russia and even the Saudis are possibly close to the peak and world oil production has been flat since mid 2004, so with China and India demanding more, where is the extra supply to come from? I believe the root cause is supply-demand/peak oil. Sure, the speculators are causing the price spiral to be uneven in the short term, but the sloping line upwards will be the same. Don't sell your bicycle. This is not a bullbe and will continue on upwards past $200 (about $8/gallon of gas). Ed

Ed
Ed - Friday May 23, 2008 11:45AM EDT

If you go to Yahoo and search "peak oil" you will find lots of articles about this subject. Many countries are in declining production such as Mexico and Russia and even the Saudis are possibly close to the peak and world oil production has been flat since mid 2004, so with China and India demanding more, where is the extra supply to come from? I believe the root cause is supply-demand/peak oil. Sure, the speculators are causing the price spiral to be uneven in the short term, but the sloping line upwards will be the same. Don't sell your bicycle. This is not a bullbe and will continue on upwards past $200 (about $8/gallon of gas). Ed

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